A challenge to Musk and Paxton
Hundreds of students and other supporters packed an auditorium at the University of Texas at Austin, Talarico's alma mater, on October 23. The 37-year-old state representative and Presbyterian seminarian is running against Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, a close Donald Trump ally, in a closely watched midterm contest that could help determine control of Congress.
Talarico accused Paxton, whom his own party impeached over corruption allegations, of being the most corrupt politician in Texas history. "I have a legislative record; Ken Paxton has a criminal record," he told the crowd.
He then turned to Musk, saying the billionaire was "almost single-handedly bankrolling" the effort to elect Paxton. "In all likelihood, if you've seen an attack ad on your screens, that was Elon," Talarico said. He contrasted the 1.3 million individuals funding his movement with what he described as Paxton's reliance on "one dude".
With data centers a contentious issue in Texas, Talarico cast Musk's political spending as part of a broader pursuit of the state's resources. "Elon Musk wants our land. He wants our water. He wants our tax dollars," he said. Promising an Election Day rebuke to Musk, whom he called "the world's first trillionaire," Talarico declared: "Texas is not for sale."
The money behind the race
Federal filings show that Musk contributed $158 million to the Senate Leadership Fund, which then sent an equal amount to Texas PAC, a Republican super PAC backing Paxton. CNBC described Musk's contribution as one of the largest known political donations from an individual in U.S. history. Musk lives in Texas and has moved SpaceX, Tesla, X and other businesses there.
The spending has moved quickly. According to Axios, an FEC report filed around October 1 showed that Texas PAC, an affiliate of the Senate Leadership Fund, spent more than $131 million supporting Paxton in 17 days, a pace exceeding $7.7 million a day. Separately, Musk's America PAC spent $18.8 million on the Senate contest through mid-October, with more than 80% directed toward messages opposing Talarico, the Texas Tribune reported from FEC filings.
Talarico told rallygoers that super PACs and "billionaire mega-donors" were spending $200 million to defeat him in what he called the most expensive Senate race in U.S. history. He likened his supporters to David's slingshot against Goliath, saying: "Big money is powerful, but it is nothing compared to people power."
His campaign reported raising $64 million from July through September, more than three times Paxton's total, with donations below $100 accounting for 97% of contributions. The Texas Tribune said the haul set a third-quarter fundraising record for a U.S. Senate candidate.
Advertising alone had reached $442 million by early October, according to AdImpact figures reported by Fox 7 Austin. The ad-tracking firm ranked the contest as the second most expensive non-presidential race on record. Republicans accounted for $326 million in advertising spending, compared with Democrats' $116 million.
Musk's wider giving and ties to Paxton
Musk's support for Paxton extends beyond the Senate Leadership Fund contribution. CNBC reported that he gave another $10 million to Lone Star Liberty PAC, a separate pro-Paxton group. His other donations in the 2026 cycle included $20 million for the Congressional Leadership Fund, House Republicans' main super PAC, $10 million for the Republican Governors Association and $2 million for the Republican Attorneys General Association.
By mid-October, Musk had donated more than $276 million to Republican groups since July, making him the largest known donor of the 2026 midterms, according to CNBC. His disclosed federal political giving for the 2025-26 cycle totaled roughly $366 million, already exceeding the approximately $290 million he spent during the 2024 presidential election.
The Texas Tribune has also reported on Paxton's approach to Musk's businesses as attorney general. While increasingly pursuing Big Tech, his office has largely avoided scrutiny of Musk's companies, the publication reported. In 2022, during Musk's effort to buy Twitter, Paxton investigated the platform's reporting of fake or automated accounts. Two years later, he opened an investigation into the World Federation of Advertisers, which Musk's X had sued over an alleged advertising boycott.
A turbulent campaign enters early voting
The Austin appearance followed a difficult stretch for both candidates. After contracting the flu in late September, Talarico went nine days without a public appearance. Trump subsequently claimed at a San Antonio rally, without evidence, that the Democrat he calls "Tala-freako" was vegan and had become sick after eating meat for political reasons. That claim developed into an online rumor that Talarico had entered a mental health facility in Ohio; the rumor was thoroughly debunked.
Paxton faced scrutiny after the Wall Street Journal released video of him celebrating New Year's Eve in Dubai alongside Anosh Ahmed and Sameer Suhail. Both men are U.S. fugitives indicted in Illinois on healthcare fraud charges. Ahmed gave Paxton $190,000, including a $25,000 donation after the indictment.
After returning to campaigning, Talarico began his "Clear Eyes, Full Hearts" statewide tour and took questions from skeptical Republicans and independent voters at a CNN town hall. Paxton launched an 18-day bus tour with the slogan "Come and Take It," appealing to conservatives and attacking what he called the far left. Republicans have also targeted Talarico over positions on transgender issues.
Recent polling gave Talarico a slight advantage. RealClearPolitics' average of surveys conducted October 6-19 showed him ahead by 1.8 percentage points. An Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media survey released Thursday put support at 48% for Talarico and 46% for Paxton.
An earlier New York Times/Siena Research Institute poll showed a larger gap: 51% for Talarico and 45% for Paxton, compared with a 47%-47% tie in June. That survey interviewed 615 Texas voters September 21-30 and had a margin of error of 4.5 percentage points. On handling data centers, respondents preferred Talarico by 50% to 42%, according to Fox 7 Austin.
Early voting opened October 19. Talarico cast his ballot Friday before the rally.
Supporters look for a statewide breakthrough
Democrats have not won statewide in Texas since 1994, and past hopes have ended in disappointment, including former Rep. Beto O'Rourke's 2018 loss to Republican Sen. Ted Cruz by less than 3 percentage points. At the Austin rally, supporters described frustration with Republican incumbents and reasons to believe Talarico could bring change.
Alina Anil, a 19-year-old University of Texas student who had already voted, came to see Talarico and show her support. "We've been red for a long time and nothing has really come out of it," she said. Anil said his background as a teacher helped give her confidence in him.
Dakota Walker, a 31-year-old pediatric physical therapist, wore a custom T-shirt modeled on the Topo-Chico sparkling water brand, reading "Talafrico: Talarico refreshing for Texas". She described the difficulty of securing care for children with disabilities and said healthcare reform was a reason for her support. Asked how she would react to a Democratic statewide victory, she said: "Oh man, I'll probably cry, honestly. We need a lot of change and I feel like it's time for a new era."
Patrick Pearson, 46, an assistive technology professional, pointed to Talarico's policy ambitions and tone. "He's actually trying to make a change and has a very positive message," he said.
